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January 2019 Update

I’m still alive!

Due to things that have been happening in my life, I haven’t posted an update on the performance of my ETF tactical asset allocation strategy in far too long. The wait is over!

As practically every major investment asset class lost value in 2018, so too did my strategy as it lost 6.94%. If there is any good news it is that much of that loss has been recouped already in 2019 and my strategy is still ahead of a passive global strategy in terms of total return.

The CAGR of my ETF asset allocation system that I have been publishing on this site currently sits at 7.9%. As seen in the chart above, that is higher than I would have achieved with a global passive ETF portfolio but, I have to say, it is lower than I would like to see. I am always searching for any tweak that I can make to improve my strategy’s performance and, as noted later, I have made a recent change which involves levered ETF’s (2X) when conditions are deemed to be right.

Even though I believe that a Gain to Pain ratio requires a minimum of five years of history to be valid, I track the ratio for my strategy understanding the limitations of calculating it for a short period of time.

The performance of my strategy in 2018 has resulted in a lower GTP ratio than I would like. We’ll see if it rises throughout 2019.

If you have an interest in developing your own ETF asset allocation strategy you can’t go wrong reading this post over at TrendXplorer. I have incorporated some of the research from that post into my strategy and expect to see improved returns going forward.

The purpose of this site is for me to hold myself accountable for my investing performance. The easy thing to do would be to not show my strategy performance and tell friends about the trades that worked out well while not mentioning the losers. If you are reading this and want to become a better investor/trader I encourage you to post your results. You may have heard the saying about one of the best ways to accomplish a goal such as losing weight or quitting smoking is to publicly announce your goal. The thought is you will then have peer pressure working on you as your friends and family will be watching to see if you accomplish your goal. I see this site in a similar way. The cure for poor performance is poor performance (not always but sometimes). If I see that my investment performance is lacking then it is up to me and nobody else to take action.

All the best.

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