If you have been a follower of mine for sometime, you will know that I have little regard for financial pundits who make predictions of exactly where the stock markets are going to be next year. Nobody knows where stock markets are going to be in a year and anybody who thinks that they do know is a fool. Even worse are those who blindly invest as per such nonsensical forecasts. As economist Dr. Sherry Cooper said “If you ask me where the stock markets are going, I’ll tell you that I don’t know. But at least I know that I don’t know. There are a lot of young economists who don’t know that they don’t know.”.
In his latest market commentary, Jeremy Grantham muses about the various paths the US economy and the stock markets may follow over the coming years but concludes by noting that he doesn’t know which path the economy or the markets will take. I have much more respect for a financial commentator who explains the possible future for the stock markets but admits that he doesn’t have a clue about the path the economy will take than I do for the financial talking head that says “The S&P 500 should be 1250 this time year.”.