My Trade Journal for Stock Trades and ETF Investments

Stock Trades are Based on Custom Screens Plus AI Analytics

ETF Investments are Based on Tactical Asset Allocation

Stocks Purchased

Investing Update for the Week Ending February 03, 2023

Friday February 3, 2023

February 01

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) – Shares Sold

My trailing sell stop was triggered and the shares were sold for $32.16 resulting in a 0.8% loss after a nine-day holding period.

 

February 03

SSR Mining (SSRM) – Shares Sold

My trailing sell stop was triggered and the shares were sold for $16.36 resulting in a 2.2% loss after a fifteen-day holding period.

 

My Tactical Asset Allocation Model

With the surge in US equity prices this week, my models now have an increased albeit small allocation to US stocks.

Tactical Asset Allocation Table

 

Tactical Asset Allocation Categories

 

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Stocks Purchased

Investing Update for the Week Ending January 27, 2023

Friday January 27, 2023

January 23

Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) – Shares Purchased

The position size entered was 4.1% of my account and I established a 9% trailing sell stop immediately after purchasing the shares.

Northern Oil and Gas Stock Price Chart

 

DiamondBack Energy (FANG) – Shares Sold

I sold my FANG shares at $148.99 which resulted in an 8.3% profit over a 40-day holding period.

 

The AES Corp (AES) – Shares Purchased

The position size entered was 5.0% of my account and I established a 7% trailing sell stop immediately after purchasing the shares.

The AES Corp Stock Price Chart

 

January 24

Primo Water Corp (PRMW) – Shares Purchased

The position size entered was 4.4% of my account and I established an 8% trailing sell stop immediately after purchasing the shares.

Primo Water Stock Price Chart

 

January 25

Texas Instruments (TXN) – Puts Sold

I sold Feb-17 $160.00 puts for $1.02.

Texas Instruments Naked Put

Texas Instruments Stock Price Chart

 

My Tactical Asset Allocations

Despite all the chatter in my Twitter feed about US equities, many other asset classes have stronger momentum and my model has a very modest allocation of only 5.1% to US stocks.

Tactical Asset Allocation Table

Tactical Asset Category Allocations

QQQ has had a strong start so far in 2023 but over the past 6 months it, like most other US stock ETFs, lags many of the other ETFs that I use.

ETF Comparison

Open Positions

In addition to the TXN puts that I sold short, I am holding four US stocks.

Open Stock Trades

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Covered Calls

Investing Update for the Week Ending January 20, 2023

Friday January 20, 2023

January 19

SSR Mining (SSRM) – Shares Purchased

SSR Mining Stock Price Chart

 

January 20

The covered calls I sold earlier on SPY and XLE expired OTM so none of my shares were called away. Similarly, the puts I sold on GM expired OTM so no shares were assigned to me.

 

My Tactical Asset Allocation Model

My Tactical Asset Allocation Table

 

Since I began posting my TAA model weights each week, the difference between the allocations to international equities and US equities was never as high as it is now. What does that mean? All it means is that international equities have higher momentum as calculated by my models than US equities. There is certainly no guarantee that US stocks will underperform international stocks in the near term. As my models allocate to the asset classes that have the highest momentum, the allocations simply reflect that international stocks currently have higher momentum. The rationale behind my models is that higher momentum asset classes will have stronger near-term price performance.

Tactical Asset Category Allocations

 

At this point, my TAA model is beating the 60-40 portfolio, the average of eight TAA ETFs, and the Barclay Hedge Fund Index. That is based on the total return from November 2021 to now. Not only does my model have the highest return it also has the lowest drawdown. The obvious caveat, of course, is that the comparison period is short and that no conclusions can be drawn.

 

Open Stock Positions

I currently hold two stocks, FANG and SSRM, and have no open option trades.

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