My Trade Journal for Stock Trades and ETF Investments

DiamondBack Energy (FANG) – Shares Sold

I sold my FANG shares at $148.99 which resulted in an 8.3% profit over a 40-day holding period.

The AES Corp (AES) – Shares Purchased

The position size entered was 5.0% of my account and I established a 7% trailing sell stop immediately after purchasing the shares.

January 24

Primo Water Corp (PRMW) – Shares Purchased

The position size entered was 4.4% of my account and I established an 8% trailing sell stop immediately after purchasing the shares.

January 25

Texas Instruments (TXN) – Puts Sold

I sold Feb-17 $160.00 puts for $1.02.

My Tactical Asset Allocations

Despite all the chatter in my Twitter feed about US equities, many other asset classes have stronger momentum and my model has a very modest allocation of only 5.1% to US stocks.

QQQ has had a strong start so far in 2023 but over the past 6 months it, like most other US stock ETFs, lags many of the other ETFs that I use.

Open Positions

In addition to the TXN puts that I sold short, I am holding four US stocks.

January 20

The covered calls I sold earlier on SPY and XLE expired OTM so none of my shares were called away. Similarly, the puts I sold on GM expired OTM so no shares were assigned to me.

My Tactical Asset Allocation Model

Since I began posting my TAA model weights each week, the difference between the allocations to international equities and US equities was never as high as it is now. What does that mean? All it means is that international equities have higher momentum as calculated by my models than US equities. There is certainly no guarantee that US stocks will underperform international stocks in the near term. As my models allocate to the asset classes that have the highest momentum, the allocations simply reflect that international stocks currently have higher momentum. The rationale behind my models is that higher momentum asset classes will have stronger near-term price performance.

At this point, my TAA model is beating the 60-40 portfolio, the average of eight TAA ETFs, and the Barclay Hedge Fund Index. That is based on the total return from November 2021 to now. Not only does my model have the highest return it also has the lowest drawdown. The obvious caveat, of course, is that the comparison period is short and that no conclusions can be drawn.

Open Stock Positions

I currently hold two stocks, FANG and SSRM, and have no open option trades.